The shortage of STEM graduates will rise to new heights towards 2040

Despite the business world's almost desperate search for engineers and graduates with IT or science backgrounds, the situation is not likely to improve in any way. As far as the eye can see, the shortage of engineers and STEM graduates will only grow, according to a new IDA forecast.

IDA's projection shows that there will be an increasing imbalance towards 2040, when the labour market demand for engineers and science graduates will exceed the supply of graduates. The imbalance will increase from 7,700 in 2030 to 16,500 in 2035 and further to 20,400 in 2040.

According to IDA President Laura Klitgaard, the bleak outlook will have major consequences if the problem is not addressed.

"Many of the major societal challenges we face today and in the long term will require more STEM graduates. In addition to the green transition and increased digitalisation, the geopolitical situation has highlighted the need to strengthen cybersecurity and ensure the development of both Danish and European defence capabilities. Therefore, there is an urgent need for us to increase enrolment in the programmes where demand will increase. If we don't, we're shooting ourselves in both feet," she says.

Already today, the shortage of engineers and science graduates is pronounced, and companies are often forced to recruit from each other, which limits our growth opportunities, according to IDA's President.

"If the entire business community has to bite its own tail in the hunt for STEM labour, we will lose ground in a number of vital fields. It could make it difficult to expand our position in the life sciences and make it harder for us to assert ourselves in new technological areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. So all red lights are flashing," says Laura Klitgaard.

International talent

In recent years, the contribution of international talent has had a vital impact on the Danish labour market. This is particularly true in the STEM labour market, where international professionals have helped to take the pressure off.

IDA's forecast shows that the international labour force of engineers and other technical and science graduates has grown from 12,500 to 23,500 between 2013 and 2022.

Laura Klitgaard doesn't dare to imagine what the business world would be like without them, but if the imbalance in the labour market for STEM graduates is to be offset by foreign students and immigration of skilled labour alone, the number of international employees with STEM skills must almost double compared to today.

"That's why we must continue to do everything we can to offer more study places to international students on STEM programmes, and work hard to attract graduates with these skills. But it will probably be difficult to solve the domestic challenge of international labour alone, as the rest of Europe is expected to experience a shortage of labour with higher education qualifications, and competition is therefore only expected to increase," she says.